The ongoing Test series between South Africa and Sri Lanka could play a pivotal role in determining one of the finalists for the World Test Championship 2023-25.
A clash between Sri Lanka and South Africa is always full of potential for memorable moments. While it’s uncertain if the current series will provide such drama, one thing is clear: it will likely be crucial in deciding the finalists.
Here’s where things stand for both teams.
Current Standings:
As of now, Sri Lanka holds a slight edge over South Africa with a PCT of 55.56, compared to South Africa’s 54.17. However, as the home team, South Africa is in a strong position to overcome this narrow deficit.
Sri Lanka currently sits third in the WTC standings, while South Africa is in fifth. After the ongoing two-Test series in South Africa, both teams will have one more two-match home series left in this cycle: South Africa will host Pakistan, while Sri Lanka will face Australia.
If both teams manage to sweep their respective home series 2-0, Sri Lanka will move to 63.64 PCT and South Africa to 63.33. However, the outcome of the current series could significantly alter these projections. If it ends in a 1-1 draw, both teams will finish with 61.11 PCT, which is currently level with India’s PCT.
Possible Outcomes:
- If South Africa wins 2-0: South Africa will reach 69.54 PCT, while Sri Lanka will drop to 53.85.
- If Sri Lanka wins 2-0: Sri Lanka will reach 69.23, and South Africa will fall to 52.78.
- If South Africa wins 1-0: South Africa will move to 63.89, while Sri Lanka will be at 56.41.
- If Sri Lanka wins 1-0: Sri Lanka will go to 64.10, while South Africa will remain at 55.56.
- If the series ends 0-0: Sri Lanka will finish with 58.97, while South Africa will be at 58.33.
Why It’s a Playoff:
While both teams are vying for the final spot, India, Australia, and New Zealand are also in the hunt. Pakistan remains a long-shot with a potential maximum of 52.38, which would require a 2-0 win in South Africa and several low-probability scenarios to unfold.
The key factors in this playoff scenario are the outcomes of other series, particularly Australia’s series against India. For example, a narrow 3-2 win for Australia would help Sri Lanka and South Africa, while a more dominant 4-1 win for Australia could hurt their chances. A 3-2 result between India and Australia could also boost Sri Lanka and South Africa, as it would place Australia’s PCT at 55.26 and India’s at 53.51.
Moreover, England’s series against New Zealand is also crucial. If England can defeat New Zealand, who currently have a PCT of 48.86, it would make it harder for New Zealand to close in on Sri Lanka and South Africa. However, if New Zealand starts winning, they could pose a serious threat to both teams.
In summary, the South Africa-Sri Lanka series will play a critical role in determining at least one of the two spots in the WTC final.
